Publication ·
Probabilistic pan-European wildfire map (Alpha-Klima Wildfire Risk)
Alpha-Klima Wildfire Risk map is a pan-European wildfire-probability dataset generated in collaboration with OS-Climate and built on IBM Research’s framework. It provides annual probabilities at 2.5 × 2.5 km resolution, covering a historical period and projections to 2050 under two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
Wildfire risk varies across both space and time. A consistent probability layer helps financial institutions and public agencies compare locations, identify concentrations and decide where more detailed analysis is warranted.
At a glance
- Coverage: Europe.
- Resolution: 2.5 × 2.5 km.
- Time span: historical 2001–2023 and projections 2024–2050.
- Scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
- Version: 1.0, published 2 April 2025.
- Licence: Available on request under a CC BY-NC licence.
What the dataset provides
The dataset estimates the annual probability that at least one wildfire occurs in each grid cell. It supports screening and prioritisation where decision-makers need a consistent view across geographies, portfolios or administrative regions.
It can reveal exposure concentrations and changes between climate pathways. It does not, by itself, estimate asset damage or financial loss, as those require exposure and vulnerability information.
Inputs
The modelling pipeline combines climate indicators, observed fire history, land cover, anthropogenic features and proximity to critical infrastructure:
Method
The probability model uses XGBoost with physical monotonic constraints. It replicates the modelling pipeline and input sources described by Burger et al. (2024), Climate Change Risk Indicators for Central Banking: Explainable AI in Fire Risk Estimations.
Preview and access
The map on this page provides a preview of the geographic patterns. Review the dataset record, resolution, access conditions and modelling assumptions before using the data in another workflow.
Citation
San Millán, Carlos (2025). Wildfire Risk for Europe under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2001–2050 (Version 1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15123977.